You can come if you want.
I show them a presentation with pictures and hold up blank pieces of paper and stuff like that. Now I'm sitting here, thinking how I should show them my messy desk, too. I don't know how it always ends up like this.
Wait. Yes I do.
Anyway, I'm speaking for an hour -- which is not that hard to do, considering I'm all "professional" and stuff. And as soon as it's over, I am heading down to Amoeba Music in Hollywood with my kids, to celebrate Record Store Day.
Record Store Day is a day for us all to pause and reflect (even though I hate reflecting) on the importance of independent music stores: how they are staffed by people who love what they do, and how they give us such a wide access to artists who defy the corporate, sales-oriented, predictable sausage-meat most people listen to.
Kind of like independent booksellers, in that regard.
And we can't afford to lose either one: indie record shops or indie booksellers.
The thing about music, though, is that it kind of naturally adapts itself to being symbiotic with technology. Music, like technology, doesn't just sit there quietly on the shelf by your bed. Even still, vinyl is more popular now -- in this age of downloadable catalogs -- than it has been in 20 years. I have a feeling vinyl will be around longer than the CD will.
And it wasn't replaced by cassettes or 8-tracks, now was it?
Books, on the other hand, do not really naturally evolve as a result of technology. People expect books to sit there and be quiet -- just like I expect anyone who's going to chime in about "enhanced books" with embedded video clips, games, and interactive touch-screen wizards, flailing their arms and wringing their hands, with their evangelistic soylent-green wails of, "BOOKS ARE DEAD TREES! BOOKS ARE DEAD TREES!" to sit there and be quiet when they read this rant.
Those are not books.
I have a feeling that paper is going to be around longer than most of us.
But, then again, I like my vinyl.
See you at the record store.
(my apologies for so blatantly baiting my friend Michael Grant to come on and tell me I'm stupid)
4 comments:
Not at all stupid, Andrew. But you're looking at books as books, not as commodities.
The current business model for a book goes like this:
Author to Agent to Editor to Printer to Shipper to Warehouser to Distributor to Bookstore to Reader.
The e-book model currently goes like this: Author to Agent to Editor to E-tailer to Reader.
We've subtracted printer, shipper, warehouser and distributor. The bricks and mortar bookstore is replaced by the e-tailer.
Clearly model "B" is more efficient than model "A." So clearly model "A" is at a competitive disadvantage. Which means "A" has a hard time making profit and thus goes into decline.
But I think it's going to get even worse. (Or better, depending on your POV.)
I think the coming business model goes like this:
Author to e-tailer to reader.
Even more efficient. Model "C" puts even more price pressure on model "A" and model "B."
Model "C" can move an e-book from author to reader for nothing but the e-tailer's commission and the author's time.
People will not be able to sell $18 hardcovers in model "A" when model "B" can sell e-books for $10. And neither will hold up when authors can sell their own product directly for $5.
Sooner or later major established authors will make the jump to self-publishing. They can keep 70% of their retail. On a $5 e-book that's $3.50. They will gain absolute control over things like cover, typeset, length, language, launch date and best of all, duration in the market. No more Barnes and Noble tick-tock, you can sell your book forever.
When some of the big writers start moving to self-pubbed the legacy publishers will be financially decapitated. It's the bestsellers that subsidize the midlist. Where does Simon and Schuster go to replace Stephen King? Especially as the market conspires to lower what they can afford to pay a King, or a Meyer or a Patterson.
Oddly enough, I think Indie bookstores will often be better positioned to survive than the chains. The Indies can shift their business model to books-as-gifts, books-as-heirlooms, the equivalent of your record store. It's the chains that will be in the same kind of trouble that found Tower Records, Hollywood Video and Blockbuster.
Enhanced books are actually the smart move for legacy publishers to make. Because they are expensive to produce and very, very labor-intensive, they can't easily be done as a self-pub. They're the equivalent of 3D movies -- a new lease on life for legacy publishers.
Sadly the publishing houses are still living in the 19th century, so they won't get it until it's too late. The technology will trickle down, enhanced books will be easier to make, and 10 or 15 years from now the bookstore chain and the legacy publishers will be shells of their former selves.
One more point: the evidence of the power of e-books is in the fact that publishers are maneuvering so desperately with Amazon and Apple to keep the prices inflated.
They know damned well that the price is threatening to collapse. They already have Costco and Wal-Mart exerting tremendous downward pressure on price and they will not be able to hold the line on $10 or $12 ebooks, let alone $18 and $25 hardcovers.
The stupidity is on the part of these legacies who by insisting on overcharging for ebooks in a desperate effort to prop up dead tree book prices, will incentivize piracy. They are literally creating book piracy by holding onto a fading paradigm.
Of course, Michael, you are so smart and have a keen idea of what's most likely coming around the corner.
Is it okay if I just
don't
like
books that light up?
No, Andrew, you must accept it! Come into the light! Join us! One of us. . . one of us . . . Gabba gabba we accept you, we accept you, one of us . . . Do you know the good news of the Lord Jesus?
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